Posts Tagged ‘markets’

Politics, Business Ideas and the Markets

Friday, October 3rd, 2008

Anyone watch the last Canadian debate last night?  I almost keeled over in laughter.  Our debates are so low-brow, even compared to the U.S. debate.  Some favorite moments:

Layton to Harper (he was taunting him all night.  So funny): “Mr. Harper, either you’re not in touch with Canadians or you’re INCOMPETENT!  Which is it!?”

Moderator to Panel: “All of the parties here have condemned the conservatives for cutting Arts funding.  Do you think the Conservatives are BARBARIANS?”

Line of the night (still pissing in my pants):

Layton to Harper: “Mr. Harper, you’re the only party without a platform.  Where is it!? (pause for dramatic effect), UNDER YOUR SWEATER!?”.

Elizabeth May and Gilles Duceppe performed the best.  After getting used to Dion’s difficult-to-understand-at-first accent, he also started to make a lot of sense.  I think I’ll put “Review major parties’ platforms” in Omnifocus.

I have to say though, although we’re a commodity driven economy in Canada, I’m really glad we’re not going through the banking controversy the states are going through.  I like to think that there are different tiers of Capitalism for different kinds of entities.  The banks and mortgage insurers in the States seemed to have forgotten that they were in the “non-aggressive” tier of capitalism and acted more like hedge funds.  Their failure further solidifies my support of having strict investment and lending criteria dictated by the government.  After all, a bank is supposed to be safe.

Given the new TSA (US Border Control) crackdown on laptops and the number of laptop confiscations JB has read about, it seems like there’s an obvious business opportunity for short term laptop rentals.  As for getting to useful application, I know there’ s a product from Route 1 called a Mobikey that allows users to virtually log into their home network or terminal from anywhere without the installation of any software on a computer.  If you can get onto your machine remotely, you should be able to launch whatever applications you have on your home network.

Finally, some thoughts on the markets.  Firstly, yes, we’re in a recession.  During these times, cash is king as are tangible appreciating assets (cars and bicycles don’t count, unless their collectables).  If you can handle some market swings, the next 6-18 months are going to present some fabulous opportunities to build up your long term equity holdings.  Real estate could also be very interesting, even in this country.  Everyone is feeling the pinch from the markets and you might just be bailing out a couple that’s on the verge of retirement that purchased a home by assuming their investment income was going to cover their payments. 

Finally, pay no attention to the recent purchases of Goldman Sachs and GE that Warren Buffett just made for the following reasons: 

  1. The reporters like to highlight that he made a $5 Billion dollar investment in Goldman and a $3 Billion dollar investment in GE.  Firstly, he invested in preferred shares of those companies that provide much better dividend returns than their common stock alternatives to a tune.
  2. In the case of GS, his investment in the company got the the company up to an equity ratio of 18:1, which qualifies them to access the $700 Billion lending window the U.S. is voting on right now.  GS had every incentive to give him a sweet deal, not to mention that GS will be looking for capital in the coming months and it’s always nice to say “Warren Buffett believes in us.”  To be honest, this was a great deal for GS.
  3. Warren Buffett’s investment portfolio is roughly $287 Billion.  That’s just his holdings and doesn’t include the investment cash he has floating.  His investments in GE and GS represent a mere 1.03% and 1.71% respectively of his investment portfolio (not counting the cash portion of the account which we’re not privy to).  To draw a parallel, if you had $10000 in your RRSPs and wanted to mirror Buffett’s investments you would be putting down $103 in GE (5 shares) and $171 in GS (1.22 shares).  To me, that doesn’t sound as big of a vote of confidence as is implied by these articles.
  4. People need to know that Buffett is a focus investor.  A focus investor’s philosophy is to put a lot of money behind a handful of stocks.  Sounds to me that Buffett got deals he couldn’t refuse, but also couldn’t back the proverbial cash truck on.

Don’t be fooled, the markets are uncertain and any investments you make today are for returns you hope to see in 5+ years.  Warren Buffet’s recent investments only support that view, despite what some articles might have you believe.  I have to say though, day traders must be making a fortune.  Every big swing one way brings a swing the other way within the next couple of business days.  Wish I was stupid enough to play sometimes.  Must be that gambler in me :-).